{"id":60969,"date":"2026-07-27T18:39:06","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T16:39:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/?p=60969"},"modified":"2026-07-27T22:15:51","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T20:15:51","slug":"ecart-a-la-moyenne-des-temperatures-en-janvier-depuis-1921-en-france-une-tendance-au-rechauffement-qui-saccelere","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/27\/ecart-a-la-moyenne-des-temperatures-en-janvier-depuis-1921-en-france-une-tendance-au-rechauffement-qui-saccelere\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9cart \u00e0 la moyenne des temp\u00e9ratures en janvier depuis 1921 en France : une tendance au r\u00e9chauffement qui s’acc\u00e9l\u00e8re"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u00c9cart \u00e0 la moyenne des temp\u00e9ratures en janvier depuis 1921 (France)<\/h2>\n

Normale de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence 1991-2020<\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n

\n Cliquez sur une barre pour afficher l\u2019ann\u00e9e et l\u2019\u00e9cart \u00e0 la normale.\n <\/div>\n\n
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\n \n Anomalies de temp\u00e9rature en janvier en France, de 1921 \u00e0 2026<\/title>\n <desc id=\"amj-desc\">\n Histogramme des \u00e9carts \u00e0 la normale 1991-2020. Les valeurs positives sont rouges\n et les valeurs n\u00e9gatives sont bleues. Chaque barre est interactive.\n <\/desc>\n <\/svg>\n <div class=\"amj-tooltip\" data-amj-tooltip role=\"status\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"amj-legend\" aria-label=\"L\u00e9gende\">\n <span><i class=\"amj-dot amj-dot-positive\"><\/i> Plus chaud que la normale<\/span>\n <span><i class=\"amj-dot amj-dot-negative\"><\/i> Plus froid que la normale<\/span>\n <\/div>\n\n <p class=\"amj-source\">Source : M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France \u2022 Normale climatologique 1991-2020<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<style>\n .amj-widget,\n .amj-widget * {\n box-sizing: border-box;\n }\n\n .amj-widget {\n --amj-red: #e85236;\n --amj-red-dark: #bd321d;\n --amj-blue: #5c9ae3;\n --amj-blue-dark: #2567b3;\n --amj-grid: #dfe4ea;\n --amj-ink: #17202a;\n --amj-muted: #59636e;\n width: 100%;\n max-width: 1180px;\n margin: 24px auto;\n padding: clamp(18px, 3vw, 32px);\n overflow: hidden;\n color: var(--amj-ink);\n background: #ffffff;\n border: 1px solid #e8ebef;\n border-radius: 18px;\n box-shadow: 0 12px 34px rgba(23, 32, 42, 0.09);\n font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\n }\n\n .amj-header h2 {\n margin: 0;\n font-size: clamp(21px, 2.6vw, 31px);\n line-height: 1.18;\n letter-spacing: -0.02em;\n }\n\n .amj-header p {\n margin: 8px 0 0;\n color: var(--amj-muted);\n font-size: 15px;\n }\n\n .amj-selection {\n min-height: 49px;\n margin: 20px 0 12px;\n padding: 12px 15px;\n color: #34404c;\n background: #f5f7fa;\n border-left: 4px solid #8995a3;\n border-radius: 9px;\n font-size: 15px;\n line-height: 1.4;\n }\n\n .amj-selection strong {\n color: var(--amj-ink);\n }\n\n .amj-selection.is-positive {\n background: #fff3f0;\n border-left-color: var(--amj-red);\n }\n\n .amj-selection.is-negative {\n background: #eff6ff;\n border-left-color: var(--amj-blue);\n }\n\n .amj-selection.is-neutral {\n background: #f5f7fa;\n border-left-color: #707b86;\n }\n\n .amj-scroll {\n width: 100%;\n overflow-x: auto;\n overflow-y: hidden;\n scrollbar-color: #aeb7c2 #edf0f3;\n scrollbar-width: thin;\n -webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;\n }\n\n .amj-stage {\n position: relative;\n width: 100%;\n min-width: 900px;\n }\n\n .amj-svg {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n height: auto;\n overflow: visible;\n touch-action: pan-x pan-y;\n }\n\n .amj-grid-line {\n stroke: var(--amj-grid);\n stroke-width: 1;\n vector-effect: non-scaling-stroke;\n }\n\n .amj-zero-line {\n stroke: #1c2732;\n stroke-width: 1.7;\n vector-effect: non-scaling-stroke;\n }\n\n .amj-y-label,\n .amj-x-label,\n .amj-axis-unit {\n fill: #68727d;\n font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\n }\n\n .amj-y-label {\n font-size: 13px;\n text-anchor: end;\n dominant-baseline: middle;\n }\n\n .amj-x-label {\n font-size: 11px;\n text-anchor: middle;\n }\n\n .amj-axis-unit {\n font-size: 12px;\n font-weight: 700;\n }\n\n .amj-bar {\n cursor: pointer;\n outline: none;\n }\n\n .amj-bar-visible {\n transition: opacity 0.14s ease, filter 0.14s ease;\n shape-rendering: geometricPrecision;\n }\n\n .amj-bar:hover .amj-bar-visible,\n .amj-bar:focus .amj-bar-visible,\n .amj-bar.is-selected .amj-bar-visible {\n opacity: 1;\n filter: brightness(0.83);\n }\n\n .amj-bar:focus-visible .amj-bar-visible {\n stroke: #111820;\n stroke-width: 2;\n vector-effect: non-scaling-stroke;\n }\n\n .amj-hit-area {\n fill: transparent;\n pointer-events: all;\n }\n\n .amj-tooltip {\n position: absolute;\n z-index: 4;\n width: max-content;\n max-width: 235px;\n padding: 10px 12px;\n color: #ffffff;\n background: rgba(18, 25, 33, 0.96);\n border-radius: 9px;\n box-shadow: 0 8px 24px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.22);\n font-size: 13px;\n line-height: 1.35;\n pointer-events: none;\n opacity: 0;\n transform: translate(-50%, calc(-100% - 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120, clientX - rect.left));\n const tooltipY = Math.max(82, clientY - rect.top);\n\n tooltip.innerHTML =\n `<strong>Janvier ${year}<\/strong>` +\n `<span>\u00c9cart \u00e0 la normale : ${formatValue(value)} \u00b0C<\/span>`;\n tooltip.style.left = `${tooltipX}px`;\n tooltip.style.top = `${tooltipY}px`;\n tooltip.classList.add(\"is-visible\");\n tooltip.setAttribute(\"aria-hidden\", \"false\");\n };\n\n const hideTooltip = () => {\n tooltip.classList.remove(\"is-visible\");\n tooltip.setAttribute(\"aria-hidden\", \"true\");\n };\n\n data.forEach(([year, value], index) => {\n const x = margin.left + index * slot + (slot - barW) \/ 2;\n const valueY = y(value);\n const rectY = value >= 0 ? valueY : zeroY;\n const rectH = Math.max(1.2, Math.abs(zeroY - valueY));\n const color = value >= 0 ? \"#e85236\" : \"#5c9ae3\";\n\n const group = makeSvg(\"g\", {\n class: \"amj-bar\",\n role: \"button\",\n tabindex: \"0\",\n \"aria-label\": `Janvier ${year}, \u00e9cart \u00e0 la normale ${formatValue(value)} degr\u00e9 Celsius`\n });\n\n const visibleBar = makeSvg(\"rect\", {\n x,\n y: rectY,\n width: barW,\n height: rectH,\n rx: 0.8,\n fill: color,\n class: \"amj-bar-visible\"\n });\n\n const hitArea = makeSvg(\"rect\", {\n x: margin.left + index * slot,\n y: margin.top,\n width: slot,\n height: plotH,\n class: \"amj-hit-area\"\n });\n\n group.appendChild(visibleBar);\n group.appendChild(hitArea);\n\n group.addEventListener(\"pointerenter\", (event) => {\n if (!pinnedBar) placeTooltip(event.clientX, event.clientY, year, value);\n });\n\n group.addEventListener(\"pointermove\", (event) => {\n if (!pinnedBar) placeTooltip(event.clientX, event.clientY, year, value);\n });\n\n group.addEventListener(\"pointerleave\", () => {\n if (!pinnedBar) hideTooltip();\n });\n\n const selectBar = (event) => {\n event.preventDefault();\n event.stopPropagation();\n removeSelection();\n pinnedBar = group;\n group.classList.add(\"is-selected\");\n setSelectionCard(year, value);\n\n const barBox = visibleBar.getBoundingClientRect();\n placeTooltip(\n barBox.left + barBox.width \/ 2,\n Math.min(barBox.top, barBox.bottom),\n year,\n value\n );\n };\n\n group.addEventListener(\"click\", selectBar);\n group.addEventListener(\"keydown\", (event) => {\n if (event.key === \"Enter\" || event.key === \" \") selectBar(event);\n if (event.key === \"Escape\") {\n removeSelection();\n hideTooltip();\n }\n });\n\n barsGroup.appendChild(group);\n });\n\n svg.appendChild(barsGroup);\n\n const labelsGroup = makeSvg(\"g\", { \"aria-hidden\": \"true\" });\n data.forEach(([year], index) => {\n if (year % 5 !== 0) return;\n const label = makeSvg(\"text\", {\n x: margin.left + index * slot + slot \/ 2,\n y: H - 25,\n class: \"amj-x-label\"\n });\n label.textContent = year;\n labelsGroup.appendChild(label);\n });\n svg.appendChild(labelsGroup);\n\n svg.addEventListener(\"click\", (event) => {\n if (event.target === svg || event.target.classList.contains(\"amj-grid-line\")) {\n removeSelection();\n hideTooltip();\n }\n });\n });\n })();\n<\/script><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><p>L’\u00e9volution des temp\u00e9ratures en janvier constitue un excellent indicateur du changement climatique en France. Si ce mois reste le plus froid de l’ann\u00e9e, les observations montrent une hausse progressive des temp\u00e9ratures moyennes depuis le d\u00e9but du XX\u1d49 si\u00e8cle. L’analyse des \u00e9carts \u00e0 la moyenne met en \u00e9vidence une succession de mois de janvier de plus en plus doux, particuli\u00e8rement depuis les ann\u00e9es 1980.<\/p>\n<h2>Comment \u00e9voluent les temp\u00e9ratures de janvier depuis 1921 ?<\/h2>\n<h3>Une tendance de fond au r\u00e9chauffement<\/h3>\n<p>Les donn\u00e9es climatiques r\u00e9v\u00e8lent une augmentation progressive des anomalies de temp\u00e9rature en janvier. Les d\u00e9cennies 1920 \u00e0 1970 alternaient entre mois plus froids et plus doux que la normale, sans tendance marqu\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p>Depuis les ann\u00e9es 1980, les anomalies positives deviennent nettement plus fr\u00e9quentes. Les mois de janvier affichent d\u00e9sormais plus souvent des temp\u00e9ratures sup\u00e9rieures aux normales climatiques, illustrant l’impact du r\u00e9chauffement climatique sur la France.<\/p>\n<h3>Pourquoi mesure-t-on un \u00e9cart \u00e0 la moyenne ?<\/h3>\n<p>L’\u00e9cart \u00e0 la moyenne, \u00e9galement appel\u00e9 <strong>anomalie de temp\u00e9rature<\/strong>, compare la temp\u00e9rature observ\u00e9e \u00e0 une p\u00e9riode de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence climatologique. Cette m\u00e9thode permet d’\u00e9valuer plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment les \u00e9volutions du climat sur le long terme, ind\u00e9pendamment des variations naturelles d’une ann\u00e9e \u00e0 l’autre.<\/p>\n<\/div><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-8902396130105212\"\n crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\n<!-- bas de page -->\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\n style=\"display:block\"\n data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8902396130105212\"\n data-ad-slot=\"7724440717\"\n data-ad-format=\"auto\"\n data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-2\"><h2><\/h2>\n<h2>Quels enseignements tirer de cette \u00e9volution ?<\/h2>\n<p>La hausse des temp\u00e9ratures en janvier influence plusieurs secteurs :<\/p>\n<ul data-spread=\"false\">\n<li>diminution de la fr\u00e9quence des vagues de froid durables ;<\/li>\n<li>modification des conditions d’enneigement en montagne ;<\/li>\n<li>\u00e9volution des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes et de la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation ;<\/li>\n<li>impacts sur l’agriculture et les ressources en eau.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ces observations confirment une modification durable du climat fran\u00e7ais, m\u00eame si des \u00e9pisodes hivernaux rigoureux restent possibles ponctuellement.<\/p>\n<h2>FAQ<\/h2>\n<h3>Que signifie un \u00e9cart positif de temp\u00e9rature ?<\/h3>\n<p>Cela indique que le mois de janvier a \u00e9t\u00e9 plus chaud que la moyenne climatologique de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence.<\/p>\n<h3>Pourquoi certains mois de janvier restent-ils froids ?<\/h3>\n<p>Le r\u00e9chauffement climatique n’emp\u00eache pas la survenue d’\u00e9pisodes froids. Il augmente simplement la probabilit\u00e9 d’observer des mois plus doux sur le long terme.<\/p>\n<h3>Depuis quand observe-t-on une hausse marqu\u00e9e ?<\/h3>\n<p>La tendance devient particuli\u00e8rement visible \u00e0 partir des ann\u00e9es 1980.<\/p>\n<h3>Les anomalies concernent-elles toute la France ?<\/h3>\n<p>Oui, mais leur intensit\u00e9 varie selon les r\u00e9gions et les conditions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques locales.<\/p>\n<h3>Cette tendance va-t-elle se poursuivre ?<\/h3>\n<p>Les projections climatiques indiquent que les temp\u00e9ratures hivernales devraient continuer \u00e0 augmenter au cours des prochaines d\u00e9cennies, m\u00eame si une variabilit\u00e9 annuelle subsistera.<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>L’analyse des \u00e9carts \u00e0 la moyenne des temp\u00e9ratures en janvier depuis 1921 met clairement en \u00e9vidence un r\u00e9chauffement progressif du climat fran\u00e7ais. Les anomalies positives sont devenues plus fr\u00e9quentes et plus marqu\u00e9es, illustrant l’\u00e9volution du climat observ\u00e9e depuis plusieurs d\u00e9cennies.<\/p>\n<h2>Consultez nos analyses climatiques<\/h2>\n<p>Retrouvez sur notre site nos graphiques, statistiques climatiques, pr\u00e9visions saisonni\u00e8res et analyses m\u00e9t\u00e9o pour suivre l’\u00e9volution des temp\u00e9ratures en France et mieux comprendre les tendances climatiques actuelles.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":60976,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"\u00c9cart \u00e0 la moyenne des temp\u00e9ratures en janvier en France depuis 1921 : \u00e9volution et tendances","_seopress_titles_desc":"D\u00e9couvrez l'\u00e9volution des temp\u00e9ratures en janvier en France depuis 1921, les \u00e9carts \u00e0 la normale climatique et les effets du r\u00e9chauffement climatique.","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"Pyr\u00e9n\u00e9es-Orientales,Pr\u00e9visionM\u00e9t\u00e9o,M\u00c9T\u00c9O DU JOUR","footnotes":""},"categories":[80,170],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualite","category-climatologie"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60969"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60969\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60972,"href":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60969\/revisions\/60972"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60976"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}