{"id":60883,"date":"2026-07-26T11:08:27","date_gmt":"2026-07-26T09:08:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/?p=60883"},"modified":"2026-07-26T11:25:45","modified_gmt":"2026-07-26T09:25:45","slug":"el-nino-et-hiver-2026-2027-en-france-quelles-consequences-attendre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/26\/el-nino-et-hiver-2026-2027-en-france-quelles-consequences-attendre\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o et hiver 2026-2027 en France : quelles cons\u00e9quences attendre ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1302px;margin-left: calc(-5% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-5% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:2.375%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:0px;--awb-spacing-left-large:2.375%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-spacing-right-medium:2.375%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:2.375%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-spacing-right-small:2.375%;--awb-spacing-left-small:2.375%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><p>El Ni\u00f1o se renforce dans le Pacifique \u00e9quatorial et pourrait atteindre une intensit\u00e9 exceptionnelle fin 2026. Quelles seront alors ses cons\u00e9quences sur <strong>l\u2019hiver 2026-2027 en France<\/strong> ?<\/p>\n<p>Son influence devient indirecte en Europe. El Ni\u00f1o ne permet donc pas, \u00e0 lui seul, d\u2019annoncer un hiver doux, froid, pluvieux ou neigeux.<\/p>\n<h2>El Ni\u00f1o 2026-2027 pourrait devenir tr\u00e8s puissant<\/h2>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o correspond \u00e0 un r\u00e9chauffement anormal du Pacifique tropical, associ\u00e9 \u00e0 une modification des vents et de la circulation atmosph\u00e9rique. Il constitue la phase chaude du ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne ENSO.<\/p>\n<p>Le 20 juillet 2026, l\u2019IRI indiquait une anomalie hebdomadaire traditionnelle de <strong>+2,1 \u00b0C<\/strong> dans la r\u00e9gion Ni\u00f1o 3.4. Les 26 mod\u00e8les \u00e9tudi\u00e9s maintiennent El Ni\u00f1o jusqu\u2019au d\u00e9but de 2027 et 23 envisagent un \u00e9pisode \u00ab tr\u00e8s fort \u00bb entre octobre et d\u00e9cembre.<\/p>\n<p>Parler d\u00e9j\u00e0 de l\u2019El Ni\u00f1o \u00ab le plus puissant depuis 155 ans \u00bb reste pr\u00e9matur\u00e9 : son pic n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 observ\u00e9 et le classement d\u00e9pend de l\u2019indice ainsi que de la p\u00e9riode climatique de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence.<\/p>\n<h2>Quels effets d\u2019El Ni\u00f1o sur l\u2019hiver en France ?<\/h2>\n<h3>Un d\u00e9but d\u2019hiver potentiellement plus doux et humide<\/h3>\n<p>Lors des \u00e9pisodes El Ni\u00f1o marqu\u00e9s, des pressions basses apparaissent plus souvent sur le proche Atlantique en d\u00e9but d\u2019hiver. Ce sch\u00e9ma peut renforcer les perturbations oc\u00e9aniques.<\/p>\n<p>Pour la France, cela favoriserait :<\/p>\n<ul data-spread=\"false\">\n<li>des temp\u00e9ratures souvent douces surtout depuis l\u2019emballement du r\u00e9chauffement climatique ;<\/li>\n<li>des passages pluvieux plus fr\u00e9quents ;<\/li>\n<li>un vent parfois soutenu sur les fa\u00e7ades atlantique et de la Manche ;<\/li>\n<li>une limite pluie-neige \u00e9lev\u00e9e en montagne sous les flux doux.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Cette tendance statistique n\u2019exclut pas des p\u00e9riodes froides.<\/p>\n<\/div><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-8902396130105212\"\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\n<!-- bas de page -->\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\n     style=\"display:block\"\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8902396130105212\"\n     data-ad-slot=\"7724440717\"\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n   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  <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Faible<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22121,73 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\u2744\ufe0f Froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1953-1954<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Faible<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22121,37 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\u2744\ufe0f Froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1957-1958<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Fort<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22120,53 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\ud83c\udf21\ufe0f L\u00e9g\u00e8rement froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1958-1959<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Faible, en d\u00e9clin<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22120,57 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\ud83c\udf21\ufe0f L\u00e9g\u00e8rement froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1963-1964<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Mod\u00e9r\u00e9<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22122,37 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\ud83e\udd76 Tr\u00e8s froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1965-1966<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Fort<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">+0,60 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--warm\">\u2600\ufe0f Doux<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1968-1969<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Mod\u00e9r\u00e9<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22121,50 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\u2744\ufe0f Froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1969-1970<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Faible, en d\u00e9clin<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22121,60 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\u2744\ufe0f Froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1972-1973<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Tr\u00e8s fort<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22121,50 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\u2744\ufe0f Froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1976-1977<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Faible<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22120,20 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--neutral\">\u2796 Proche des normales<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1977-1978<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Faible<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22120,67 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\ud83c\udf21\ufe0f Assez froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1979-1980<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Faible<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22120,07 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--neutral\">\u2796 Proche des normales<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1982-1983<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Tr\u00e8s fort<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22120,67 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\ud83c\udf21\ufe0f Contrast\u00e9, f\u00e9vrier froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1986-1987<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Mod\u00e9r\u00e9<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22122,33 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\ud83e\udd76 Tr\u00e8s froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1987-1988<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Mod\u00e9r\u00e9, en d\u00e9clin<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">+0,70 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--warm\">\u2600\ufe0f Doux<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1991-1992<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Fort<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22121,47 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\u2744\ufe0f Froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1992-1993<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Faible selon le RONI<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22120,20 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--neutral\">\u2796 Proche des normales<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1994-1995<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Mod\u00e9r\u00e9<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">+1,33 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--warm\">\ud83d\udd25 Tr\u00e8s doux<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">1997-1998<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Tr\u00e8s fort<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">+0,70 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--warm\">\u2600\ufe0f Doux<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">2002-2003<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Mod\u00e9r\u00e9<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22120,50 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\ud83c\udf21\ufe0f L\u00e9g\u00e8rement froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">2004-2005<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Faible<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22121,27 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\u2744\ufe0f Froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">2006-2007<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Faible<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">+1,40 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--warm\">\ud83d\udd25 Tr\u00e8s doux<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">2009-2010<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Fort<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22121,67 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--cold\">\u2744\ufe0f Froid<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">2014-2015<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Faible<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u22120,30 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--neutral\">\u2796 Proche des normales<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">2015-2016<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Tr\u00e8s fort<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">+2,07 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--warm\">\ud83d\udd25 Exceptionnellement doux<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">2018-2019<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Faible<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">+0,87 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--warm\">\u2600\ufe0f Doux<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr>\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">2023-2024<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Tr\u00e8s fort<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">+2,00 \u00b0C<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--warm\">\ud83d\udd25 Exceptionnellement doux<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n        <tr class=\"enso-wp__forecast\">\n          <td data-label=\"Hiver\">2026-2027<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"El Ni\u00f1o\">Potentiellement tr\u00e8s fort<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Anomalie\">\u00c0 d\u00e9terminer<\/td>\n          <td data-label=\"Caract\u00e8re\"><span class=\"enso-wp__badge enso-wp__badge--neutral\">\ud83d\udd0e \u00c0 d\u00e9terminer<\/span><\/td>\n        <\/tr>\n      <\/tbody>\n    <\/table>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"enso-wp__notes\">\n    <p><strong>* R\u00e9f\u00e9rence thermique :<\/strong> \u00e9cart \u00e0 la normale fran\u00e7aise 1991-2020.<\/p>\n    <p><strong>Intensit\u00e9 d\u2019El Ni\u00f1o :<\/strong> faible de +0,5 \u00e0 +0,9 \u00b0C ; mod\u00e9r\u00e9 de +1 \u00e0 +1,4 \u00b0C ; fort de +1,5 \u00e0 +1,9 \u00b0C ; tr\u00e8s fort \u00e0 partir de +2 \u00b0C.<\/p>\n    <p><strong>\u00c0 retenir :<\/strong> un El Ni\u00f1o fort ou tr\u00e8s fort ne garantit pas un hiver doux en France. La circulation atmosph\u00e9rique sur l\u2019Atlantique Nord et l\u2019Europe reste d\u00e9terminante.<\/p>\n    <p>Sources : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/ensostuff\/ONI_v5.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NOAA \u2013 historique ENSO<\/a> et M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France.<\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section><div class=\"awb-gallery-wrapper awb-gallery-wrapper-1 button-span-no\" style=\"--more-btn-alignment:center;\"><div style=\"margin:-5px;--awb-bordersize:0px;\" class=\"fusion-gallery fusion-gallery-container fusion-grid-1 fusion-columns-total-0 fusion-gallery-layout-grid fusion-gallery-1\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-2\"><h3>Une fin d\u2019hiver plus incertaine<\/h3>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">En janvier ou f\u00e9vrier, El Ni\u00f1o peut favoriser une phase n\u00e9gative de l\u2019oscillation nord-atlantique, la <a href=\"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/24\/oscillation-nord-atlantique\/\"><strong>NAO<\/strong><\/a>. Les vents d\u2019ouest faiblissent alors et des blocages peuvent se d\u00e9velopper vers l\u2019Atlantique Nord.<\/p>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">Cette configuration augmente parfois la possibilit\u00e9 de descentes froides. Pour la France, la position des centres d\u2019action reste d\u00e9terminante : quelques centaines de kilom\u00e8tres peuvent s\u00e9parer douceur, froid sec, pluie ou neige.<\/p>\n<h2>El Ni\u00f1o annonce-t-il un hiver froid ou neigeux ?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">Non. <strong>Un puissant El Ni\u00f1o ne garantit ni vague de froid ni neige abondante en France.<\/strong> La neige en plaine exige simultan\u00e9ment de l\u2019air froid, une perturbation bien plac\u00e9e et des temp\u00e9ratures basses jusqu\u2019au sol.<\/p>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">En montagne, un flux doux et perturb\u00e9 peut apporter beaucoup de neige en altitude, mais de la pluie plus bas. Les stations doivent surveiller les pr\u00e9cipitations et l\u2019isotherme 0 \u00b0C.<\/p>\n<h2>Pourquoi l\u2019impact fran\u00e7ais reste difficile \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir<\/h2>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">Entre le Pacifique tropical et la France interviennent plusieurs facteurs :<\/p>\n<ul data-spread=\"false\">\n<li>la <a href=\"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/24\/previsions-de-loscillation-nord-atlantique\/\">NAO <\/a>et la position du courant-jet atlantique ;<\/li>\n<li>les temp\u00e9ratures de l\u2019Atlantique Nord ;<\/li>\n<li>le vortex polaire et la stratosph\u00e8re ;<\/li>\n<li>les blocages anticycloniques ;<\/li>\n<li>le r\u00e9chauffement climatique.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France estime que son influence sur l\u2019Hexagone et la Corse pourrait rester faible, voire peu perceptible, face au r\u00e9chauffement de fond. El Ni\u00f1o modifie des probabilit\u00e9s, pas la m\u00e9t\u00e9o quotidienne.<\/p>\n<h2>Comment suivre s\u00e9rieusement l\u2019hiver 2026-2027 ?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">Les sc\u00e9narios saisonniers d\u00e9crivent une moyenne sur plusieurs mois, sans dater une vague de froid ou une temp\u00eate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">Pour anticiper utilement :<\/p>\n<ol start=\"1\" data-spread=\"false\">\n<li>consultez les tendances saisonni\u00e8res ;<\/li>\n<li>suivez notre <a href=\"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/category\/previsions-a-5-semaines\/\">tendance m\u00e9t\u00e9o \u00e0 cinq semaines<\/a> pour rep\u00e9rer les changements de r\u00e9gime ;<\/li>\n<li>utilisez les pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 7 ou 10 jours pour pr\u00e9ciser froid, pluie ou vent ;<\/li>\n<li>v\u00e9rifiez la m\u00e9t\u00e9o locale avant tout d\u00e9placement.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">Cette m\u00e9thode sert le tourisme, les transports, l\u2019agriculture, le b\u00e2timent et l\u2019\u00e9nergie.<\/p>\n<h2>FAQ \u2013 El Ni\u00f1o et hiver 2026-2027 en France<\/h2>\n<h3>El Ni\u00f1o sera-t-il exceptionnel en 2026-2027 ?<\/h3>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">Les mod\u00e8les pr\u00e9voient un \u00e9pisode fort \u00e0 tr\u00e8s fort. Son classement devra \u00eatre confirm\u00e9 par les observations.<\/p>\n<h3>El Ni\u00f1o provoque-t-il un hiver doux en France ?<\/h3>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">Il peut favoriser une douceur humide en d\u00e9but de saison, sans rendre ce sc\u00e9nario automatique.<\/p>\n<h3>Peut-il neiger davantage en France avec El Ni\u00f1o ?<\/h3>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">Non. La neige d\u00e9pend surtout des temp\u00e9ratures, des flux et de la trajectoire des perturbations.<\/p>\n<h3>Une vague de froid reste-t-elle possible ?<\/h3>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">Oui. Un blocage atlantique ou une NAO n\u00e9gative peut favoriser une descente froide.<\/p>\n<h3>Quelles r\u00e9gions fran\u00e7aises seraient les plus concern\u00e9es ?<\/h3>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">L\u2019Ouest et le Nord pourraient subir davantage de perturbations atlantiques. Aucun d\u00e9coupage fiable ne peut \u00eatre \u00e9tabli plusieurs mois \u00e0 l\u2019avance.<\/p>\n<h3>Quand conna\u00eetra-t-on une tendance plus pr\u00e9cise ?<\/h3>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">Les pr\u00e9visions saisonni\u00e8res s\u2019affineront \u00e0 l\u2019automne, puis les tendances \u00e0 trois ou cinq semaines pr\u00e9ciseront les r\u00e9gimes dominants.<\/p>\n<h2>El Ni\u00f1o 2026-2027 : ce qu\u2019il faut retenir pour la France<\/h2>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">El Ni\u00f1o pourrait favoriser un d\u00e9but d\u2019hiver doux et humide, puis une circulation plus variable. Aucun sc\u00e9nario de froid, de temp\u00eates ou de neige ne peut cependant \u00eatre affirm\u00e9 aujourd\u2019hui.<\/p>\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><strong>Consultez r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement notre tendance m\u00e9t\u00e9o \u00e0 cinq semaines pour suivre l\u2019\u00e9volution des temp\u00e9ratures, des pr\u00e9cipitations et des risques de changement de r\u00e9gime sur la France.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3>Sources de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence<\/h3>\n<ul data-spread=\"false\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/meteofrance.com\/actualites-et-dossiers\/actualites\/le-phenomene-el-nino-est-en-cours-quelles-consequences-lechelle\">M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France \u2013 Le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne El Ni\u00f1o est en cours : quelles cons\u00e9quences \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle plan\u00e9taire ?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/iri.columbia.edu\/our-expertise\/climate\/forecasts\/enso\/current\/\">IRI \u2013 Pr\u00e9vision ENSO de juillet 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bom.gov.au\/climate\/enso\/\">Bureau of Meteorology \u2013 Suivi d\u2019El Ni\u00f1o<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecmwf.int\/en\/about\/media-centre\/science-blog\/2026\/measuring-strength-el-nino\">ECMWF \u2013 Mesurer la force d\u2019El Ni\u00f1o dans un climat plus chaud<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-3\"><\/div><div class=\"fusion-separator fusion-has-icon fusion-full-width-sep\" style=\"align-self: center;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;flex-grow:2;width:100%;\"><\/div><div class=\"fusion-separator fusion-full-width-sep\" style=\"align-self: center;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;width:100%;\"><div class=\"fusion-separator-border sep-double\" style=\"--awb-height:20px;--awb-amount:20px;--awb-sep-color:#ffffff;border-color:#ffffff;border-top-width:25px;border-bottom-width:25px;\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-separator fusion-full-width-sep\" style=\"align-self: center;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;width:100%;\"><div class=\"fusion-separator-border sep-double\" style=\"--awb-height:20px;--awb-amount:20px;--awb-sep-color:#ffffff;border-color:#ffffff;border-top-width:11px;border-bottom-width:11px;\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-4\"><\/div><div class=\"fusion-separator fusion-full-width-sep\" style=\"align-self: center;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;width:100%;\"><div class=\"fusion-separator-border sep-double\" style=\"--awb-height:20px;--awb-amount:20px;border-color:var(--awb-color3);border-top-width:1px;border-bottom-width:1px;\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-5\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":60885,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"El Ni\u00f1o et hiver 2026-2027 en France : quels effets ?","_seopress_titles_desc":"El Ni\u00f1o pourrait devenir tr\u00e8s puissant en 2026-2027. 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