{"id":62373,"date":"2026-08-07T10:01:24","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T08:01:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/?page_id=62373"},"modified":"2026-08-07T10:50:18","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T08:50:18","slug":"previsions-arome-arpege-harmonie","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/previsions-meteo-france\/previsions-arome-arpege-harmonie\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9o \u00e0 3-4 jours en France : Arome, Arp\u00e8ge et Harmonie"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1575px;margin-left: calc(-5% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-5% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-blend:overlay;--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:2.375%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:0px;--awb-spacing-left-large:2.375%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-spacing-right-medium:2.375%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:2.375%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-spacing-right-small:2.375%;--awb-spacing-left-small:2.375%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Derri\u00e8re une pr\u00e9vision \u00e0 3 ou 4 jours, il y a des mod\u00e8les num\u00e9riques. En France, trois noms reviennent : Arome, Arp\u00e8ge et Harmonie. Chacun travaille \u00e0 une \u00e9chelle diff\u00e9rente et r\u00e9pond \u00e0 un besoin pr\u00e9cis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Arome est le mod\u00e8le haute r\u00e9solution de M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France, taill\u00e9 pour les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes locaux : orages, \u00e9pisodes c\u00e9venols, temp\u00eate. Sa maille fine le rend pr\u00e9cis \u00e0 courte \u00e9ch\u00e9ance, moins fiable au-del\u00e0 de 48 heures. Arp\u00e8ge couvre une zone plus large, \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9chelle europ\u00e9enne, et reste la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour les tendances \u00e0 4 jours et au-del\u00e0. Harmonie, d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 dans le cadre de la coop\u00e9ration HIRLAM-ALADIN, occupe un terrain interm\u00e9diaire et \u00e9quipe plusieurs services m\u00e9t\u00e9o nationaux.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Pour planifier une activit\u00e9 en ext\u00e9rieur, savoir quel mod\u00e8le consulter selon l&rsquo;\u00e9ch\u00e9ance et la zone g\u00e9ographique change r\u00e9ellement la lecture d&rsquo;une pr\u00e9vision.<\/p>\n<h1>Arome, Arp\u00e8ge, Harmonie : Comprendre les Mod\u00e8les pour des Pr\u00e9visions Fiables<\/h1>\n<p>Pour un chef de chantier, un agriculteur ou un responsable logistique, la question n&rsquo;est pas seulement de savoir s&rsquo;il va pleuvoir, mais avec quelle certitude cette information est d\u00e9livr\u00e9e. Derri\u00e8re chaque application m\u00e9t\u00e9o se cachent des <strong>mod\u00e8les num\u00e9riques de pr\u00e9vision<\/strong>, de v\u00e9ritables supercalculateurs simulant l&rsquo;\u00e9tat futur de l&rsquo;atmosph\u00e8re. En France, trois noms dominent le paysage : <strong>Arome<\/strong>, <strong>Arp\u00e8ge<\/strong> et <strong>Harmonie<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Comprendre leurs sp\u00e9cificit\u00e9s, leur r\u00e9solution et leur horizon de fiabilit\u00e9 est essentiel pour transformer une simple information brute en une d\u00e9cision op\u00e9rationnelle s\u00e9curis\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-separator fusion-full-width-sep\" style=\"align-self: center;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;width:100%;\"><div class=\"fusion-separator-border sep-double\" style=\"--awb-height:20px;--awb-amount:20px;--awb-sep-color:#ffffff;border-color:#ffffff;border-top-width:1px;border-bottom-width:1px;\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"meteo-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"meteo-header\">\n    <input type=\"text\" id=\"cityInput\" placeholder=\"Saisir une ville (ex: Perpignan)\" \/>\n    <select id=\"modelSelect\">\n      <option value=\"meteofrance_arome_france\">AROME<\/option>\n      <option value=\"meteofrance_arpege_europe\">ARPEGE<\/option>\n      <option value=\"knmi_harmonie_arome_europe\">HARMONIE<\/option>\n    <\/select>\n    <button onclick=\"fetchMeteo()\">G\u00e9n\u00e9rer les pr\u00e9visions<\/button>\n  <\/div>\n  <div id=\"meteoResults\" class=\"meteo-results\">\n    <p style=\"text-align:center; color:#1d3557; font-weight:bold;\">Entrez une ville pour afficher les pr\u00e9visions.<\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<style>\n  \/* Base & Conteneur *\/\n  .meteo-widget-container {\n    font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\n    width: 100%;\n    margin: 20px auto;\n    background: #ffffff;\n    padding: 20px;\n    border-radius: 12px;\n    box-shadow: 0 4px 15px rgba(0,0,0,0.08);\n    box-sizing: border-box;\n  }\n\n  \/* Formulaire de recherche *\/\n  .meteo-header {\n    display: flex;\n    flex-wrap: wrap;\n    gap: 12px;\n    margin-bottom: 25px;\n  }\n  .meteo-header input, .meteo-header select, .meteo-header button {\n    padding: 12px 16px;\n    border: 2px solid #ffb703;\n    border-radius: 8px;\n    font-size: 16px;\n    outline: none;\n    box-sizing: border-box;\n  }\n  .meteo-header input { flex: 2; min-width: 180px; background: #fff; color: #1d3557; }\n  .meteo-header select { flex: 1; min-width: 180px; background: #fff; color: #1d3557; cursor: pointer; font-weight: bold;}\n  .meteo-header button {\n    flex: 1; min-width: 160px; background: #ffb703; color: #023047;\n    font-weight: bold; cursor: pointer; border: none; transition: background 0.3s;\n  }\n  .meteo-header button:hover { background: #fb8500; }\n\n  \/* Conteneur du tableau 100% optimis\u00e9 mobile *\/\n  .meteo-table-wrapper {\n    width: 100%;\n    overflow-x: auto;\n    -webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch; \n    border-radius: 10px;\n    box-shadow: 0 0 10px rgba(0,0,0,0.05);\n  }\n\n  \/* Structure du Tableau *\/\n  .meteo-table {\n    width: 100%;\n    min-width: 900px; \/* \u00c9largi pour accueillir la nouvelle colonne confortablement *\/\n    border-collapse: collapse;\n    background: #ffffff;\n  }\n\n  \/* En-t\u00eate tr\u00e8s color\u00e9e *\/\n  .meteo-table thead {\n    background: linear-gradient(135deg, #4361ee, #3a0ca3);\n    color: #ffffff;\n  }\n  .meteo-table th {\n    padding: 15px 10px;\n    font-size: 1em;\n    font-weight: 700;\n    text-transform: uppercase;\n    letter-spacing: 0.5px;\n    text-align: center;\n  }\n  .meteo-table th:first-child { text-align: left; padding-left: 20px; }\n\n  \/* Lignes et Cellules avec teintes vives *\/\n  .meteo-table tbody tr {\n    border-bottom: 2px solid #f8f9fa;\n    transition: background 0.2s;\n  }\n  .meteo-table tbody tr:nth-child(even) { background-color: #f0f7fa; } \n  .meteo-table tbody tr:hover { background-color: #e0fbfc; }\n  \n  .meteo-table td {\n    padding: 14px 10px;\n    text-align: center;\n    vertical-align: middle;\n    font-size: 1.05em;\n    font-weight: 600;\n  }\n\n  \/* Colonne collante pour Mobile *\/\n  .meteo-table th:first-child,\n  .meteo-table td.col-date {\n    position: sticky;\n    left: 0;\n    background: inherit;\n    z-index: 1;\n    border-right: 3px solid #e9ecef;\n    text-align: left;\n    padding-left: 20px;\n  }\n  .meteo-table thead th:first-child { background: #4361ee; z-index: 2; border-right: none; }\n  \n  \/* Maintien des couleurs sous la colonne collante *\/\n  .meteo-table tbody tr:nth-child(even) td.col-date { background-color: #f0f7fa; }\n  .meteo-table tbody tr:nth-child(odd) td.col-date { background-color: #ffffff; }\n\n  \/* Couleurs de donn\u00e9es satur\u00e9es (contraste maximal) *\/\n  .data-jour { color: #03045e; font-size: 1.15em; font-weight: 800; display: block; margin-bottom: 4px; }\n  .data-date { color: #0077b6; font-size: 0.9em; font-weight: 700; }\n  \n  .col-meteo { display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center; gap: 10px; color: #1d3557; }\n  .icon-meteo { font-size: 2em; filter: drop-shadow(2px 2px 3px rgba(0,0,0,0.2)); }\n  .txt-meteo { font-size: 0.95em; font-weight: 800; width: 110px; text-align: left; line-height: 1.2; }\n\n  .col-tmin { color: #00b4d8; font-size: 1.25em; font-weight: 900; } \/* Bleu Cyan vif *\/\n  .col-tmax { color: #f72585; font-size: 1.25em; font-weight: 900; } \/* Rose\/Rouge \u00e9clatant *\/\n  .col-rafale { color: #7209b7; font-weight: 900; font-size: 1.1em;} \/* Violet pur *\/\n  .col-precip { color: #00a896; font-weight: 900; font-size: 1.1em;} \/* Vert d'eau satur\u00e9 *\/\n\n  \/* Messages d'\u00e9tat *\/\n  .meteo-message { text-align: center; font-size: 1.1em; font-weight: bold; color: #d62828; padding: 20px; }\n  .meteo-title { color: #023047; text-align: center; margin-bottom: 20px; font-size: 1.5em; text-transform: capitalize; font-weight: 900;}\n\n  \/* Scrollbar personnalis\u00e9e *\/\n  .meteo-table-wrapper::-webkit-scrollbar { height: 10px; }\n  .meteo-table-wrapper::-webkit-scrollbar-track { background: #f1f1f1; border-radius: 5px; }\n  .meteo-table-wrapper::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb { background: #ffb703; border-radius: 5px; }\n<\/style>\n\n<script>\n  async function fetchMeteo() {\n    const city = document.getElementById('cityInput').value.trim();\n    const modelSelect = document.getElementById('modelSelect');\n    const model = modelSelect.value;\n    const modelName = modelSelect.options[modelSelect.selectedIndex].text;\n    const resultsDiv = document.getElementById('meteoResults');\n    \n    if (!city) {\n      resultsDiv.innerHTML = '<p class=\"meteo-message\">Veuillez entrer le nom d\\'une ville.<\/p>';\n      return;\n    }\n\n    resultsDiv.innerHTML = '<p class=\"meteo-message\" style=\"color:#f72585;\">Analyse des mod\u00e8les en cours \u23f3...<\/p>';\n\n    try {\n      \/\/ 1. G\u00e9ocodage\n      const geoUrl = `https:\/\/geocoding-api.open-meteo.com\/v1\/search?name=${encodeURIComponent(city)}&count=5&language=fr`;\n      const geoRes = await fetch(geoUrl);\n      const geoData = await geoRes.json();\n      \n      if (!geoData.results || geoData.results.length === 0) {\n        resultsDiv.innerHTML = '<p class=\"meteo-message\">Ville introuvable. V\u00e9rifiez l\\'orthographe.<\/p>';\n        return;\n      }\n      \n      const bestMatch = geoData.results.find(r => r.country === \"France\") || geoData.results[0];\n      const { latitude, longitude, name, admin1 } = bestMatch;\n      const regionLabel = admin1 ? `(${admin1})` : '';\n\n      \/\/ 2. Appel API avec le mod\u00e8le sp\u00e9cifique\n      const tz = \"Europe\/Paris\";\n      const meteoUrl = `https:\/\/api.open-meteo.com\/v1\/forecast?latitude=${latitude}&longitude=${longitude}&hourly=temperature_2m,wind_gusts_10m,weathercode,precipitation&models=${model}&forecast_days=16&timezone=${encodeURIComponent(tz)}`;\n      \n      const meteoRes = await fetch(meteoUrl);\n      const meteoData = await meteoRes.json();\n      \n      if(!meteoData.hourly) {\n         resultsDiv.innerHTML = '<p class=\"meteo-message\">Donn\u00e9es indisponibles pour ce mod\u00e8le sur cette zone.<\/p>';\n         return;\n      }\n\n      const hourly = meteoData.hourly;\n      \n      \/\/ 3. Traitement des donn\u00e9es par jour\n      const daysData = {};\n      \n      for (let i = 0; i < hourly.time.length; i++) {\n        \/\/ S\u00e9curit\u00e9 si les donn\u00e9es sont nulles (fin de run du mod\u00e8le)\n        if(hourly.temperature_2m[i] === null) continue;\n\n        const timeStr = hourly.time[i]; \n        const datePart = timeStr.split('T')[0];\n        const hourPart = timeStr.split('T')[1].substring(0,2);\n        \n        if (!daysData[datePart]) {\n          daysData[datePart] = { \n            date: datePart, \n            temp7: null, \n            temp15: null, \n            weatherIcon7: null,\n            weatherIcon15: null,\n            maxGust: 0, \n            totalPrecip: 0\n          };\n        }\n        \n        if (hourPart === \"07\") { \n            daysData[datePart].temp7 = hourly.temperature_2m[i]; \n            daysData[datePart].weatherIcon7 = hourly.weathercode[i];\n        }\n        if (hourPart === \"15\") {\n            daysData[datePart].temp15 = hourly.temperature_2m[i];\n            daysData[datePart].weatherIcon15 = hourly.weathercode[i]; \n        }\n        \n        const gust = hourly.wind_gusts_10m[i];\n        if (gust > daysData[datePart].maxGust) { daysData[datePart].maxGust = gust; }\n        \n        daysData[datePart].totalPrecip += hourly.precipitation[i] || 0;\n      }\n\n      \/\/ 4. G\u00e9n\u00e9ration de l'interface Tableau\n      let html = `<h3 class=\"meteo-title\">\n                    Pr\u00e9visions pour ${name} ${regionLabel} <br>\n                    <span style=\"color:#4361ee;\">Mod\u00e8le : ${modelName}<\/span>\n                  <\/h3>`;\n      \n      html += `\n        <div class=\"meteo-table-wrapper\">\n          <table class=\"meteo-table\">\n            <thead>\n              <tr>\n                <th>Date<\/th>\n                <th>Temps \u00e0 7 h<\/th>\n                <th>Temps \u00e0 15 h<\/th>\n                <th>T\u00b0 mini (7h)<\/th>\n                <th>T\u00b0 maxi (15h)<\/th>\n                <th>Rafales maxi<\/th>\n                <th>Pr\u00e9cipitations<\/th>\n              <\/tr>\n            <\/thead>\n            <tbody>\n      `;\n      \n      let count = 0;\n      const todayStr = new Date().toISOString().split('T')[0];\n\n      for (const [date, data] of Object.entries(daysData)) {\n        if (count >= 15) break; \n        \n        \/\/ Si le mod\u00e8le s'arr\u00eate avant 15h ce jour-l\u00e0, on ne l'affiche pas\n        if (data.temp15 === null) continue; \n        \n        const dateObj = new Date(date);\n        let nomJour = dateObj.toLocaleDateString('fr-FR', { weekday: 'long' });\n        nomJour = nomJour.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + nomJour.slice(1);\n        const dateMois = dateObj.toLocaleDateString('fr-FR', { day: 'numeric', month: 'long' });\n        \n        let displayJour = nomJour;\n        if (date === todayStr) { displayJour = \"Aujourd'hui\"; } \n        else {\n          const tomorrow = new Date(); tomorrow.setDate(tomorrow.getDate() + 1);\n          if (date === tomorrow.toISOString().split('T')[0]) { displayJour = \"Demain\"; }\n        }\n\n        const wmoInfo7 = getWmoInfo(data.weatherIcon7 !== null ? data.weatherIcon7 : 0);\n        const wmoInfo15 = getWmoInfo(data.weatherIcon15 !== null ? data.weatherIcon15 : 0);\n        \n        const t7 = data.temp7 !== null ? Math.round(data.temp7) + ' \u00b0C' : '--';\n        const t15 = Math.round(data.temp15) + ' \u00b0C';\n        \n        \/\/ Arrondi strict \u00e0 5, 10, 15, 20...\n        const rafaleArrondie = Math.round(data.maxGust \/ 5) * 5; \n        const precip = data.totalPrecip < 0.1 ? '0 mm' : data.totalPrecip.toFixed(1) + ' mm';\n        \n        html += `\n          <tr>\n            <td class=\"col-date\">\n              <span class=\"data-jour\">${displayJour}<\/span>\n              <span class=\"data-date\">${dateMois}<\/span>\n            <\/td>\n            <td>\n              <div class=\"col-meteo\">\n                <span class=\"icon-meteo\">${wmoInfo7.icon}<\/span>\n                <span class=\"txt-meteo\">${wmoInfo7.text}<\/span>\n              <\/div>\n            <\/td>\n            <td>\n              <div class=\"col-meteo\">\n                <span class=\"icon-meteo\">${wmoInfo15.icon}<\/span>\n                <span class=\"txt-meteo\">${wmoInfo15.text}<\/span>\n              <\/div>\n            <\/td>\n            <td class=\"col-tmin\">${t7}<\/td>\n            <td class=\"col-tmax\">${t15}<\/td>\n            <td class=\"col-rafale\">${rafaleArrondie} km\/h<\/td>\n            <td class=\"col-precip\">${precip}<\/td>\n          <\/tr>\n        `;\n        count++;\n      }\n      \n      html += `<\/tbody><\/table><\/div>`;\n      \n      \/\/ Avertissement pour les mod\u00e8les \u00e0 mailles fines\n      if(count < 5) {\n         html += `<p style=\"text-align:center; margin-top:15px; font-weight:bold; color:#7209b7;\">\n                    \u2139\ufe0f Affichage limit\u00e9 \u00e0 ${count} jour(s) : C'est le d\u00e9lai maximum de calcul pour ce mod\u00e8le \u00e0 haute r\u00e9solution.\n                  <\/p>`;\n      }\n\n      resultsDiv.innerHTML = html;\n      \n    } catch(err) {\n      console.error(err);\n      resultsDiv.innerHTML = '<p class=\"meteo-message\">Erreur lors de la r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration des donn\u00e9es.<\/p>';\n    }\n  }\n\n  \/\/ Dictionnaire WMO avec Ic\u00f4nes et Textes\n  function getWmoInfo(code) {\n    const mapping = {\n      0: { icon: '\u2600\ufe0f', text: 'Ciel d\u00e9gag\u00e9' },\n      1: { icon: '\ud83c\udf24\ufe0f', text: 'Peu nuageux' },\n      2: { icon: '\u26c5', text: 'Nuageux' },\n      3: { icon: '\u2601\ufe0f', text: 'Couvert' },\n      45: { icon: '\ud83c\udf2b\ufe0f', text: 'Brouillard' },\n      48: { icon: '\ud83c\udf2b\ufe0f', text: 'Brouill. givrant' },\n      51: { icon: '\ud83c\udf26\ufe0f', text: 'L\u00e9g\u00e8re bruine' },\n      53: { icon: '\ud83c\udf26\ufe0f', text: 'Bruine' },\n      55: { icon: '\ud83c\udf27\ufe0f', text: 'Forte bruine' },\n      61: { icon: '\ud83c\udf27\ufe0f', text: 'Pluie faible' },\n      63: { icon: '\ud83c\udf27\ufe0f', text: 'Pluie mod\u00e9r\u00e9e' },\n      65: { icon: '\ud83c\udf27\ufe0f', text: 'Pluie forte' },\n      71: { icon: '\u2744\ufe0f', text: 'Neige faible' },\n      73: { icon: '\u2744\ufe0f', text: 'Neige' },\n      75: { icon: '\u2744\ufe0f', text: 'Neige forte' },\n      80: { icon: '\ud83c\udf26\ufe0f', text: 'Averses faibles' },\n      81: { icon: '\ud83c\udf27\ufe0f', text: 'Averses' },\n      82: { icon: '\ud83c\udf27\ufe0f', text: 'Fortes averses' },\n      95: { icon: '\u26c8\ufe0f', text: 'Orages' },\n      96: { icon: '\u26c8\ufe0f', text: 'Orages forts' },\n      99: { icon: '\u26c8\ufe0f', text: 'Orages gr\u00eale' }\n    };\n    return mapping[code] || { icon: '\u2753', text: 'Inconnu' };\n  }\n<\/script><style>\n  .banner-15jours {\n    display: flex;\n    align-items: center;\n    justify-content: space-between;\n    background: linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%);\n    color: #ffffff;\n    text-decoration: none !important;\n    padding: 16px 24px;\n    border-radius: 12px;\n    box-shadow: 0 4px 15px rgba(118, 75, 162, 0.4);\n    font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \"Segoe UI\", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\n    transition: transform 0.2s ease, box-shadow 0.2s ease;\n    margin: 20px 0;\n  }\n\n  .banner-15jours:hover {\n    transform: translateY(-3px);\n    box-shadow: 0 8px 25px rgba(118, 75, 162, 0.5);\n    color: #ffffff !important;\n  }\n\n  .banner-15jours-icon {\n    font-size: 28px;\n    margin-right: 15px;\n  }\n\n  .banner-15jours-text {\n    flex-grow: 1;\n    font-size: 18px;\n    font-weight: 600;\n    line-height: 1.3;\n    margin-right: 20px;\n  }\n\n  .banner-15jours-btn {\n    background-color: #ffffff;\n    color: #6a62c5; \/* Violet assorti au d\u00e9grad\u00e9 *\/\n    padding: 10px 20px;\n    border-radius: 25px;\n    font-weight: bold;\n    font-size: 14px;\n    white-space: nowrap;\n    text-transform: uppercase;\n    box-shadow: 0 2px 5px rgba(0,0,0,0.1);\n  }\n\n  .banner-15jours:hover .banner-15jours-btn {\n    background-color: #f8f9fa;\n  }\n\n  \/* Adaptation pour les t\u00e9l\u00e9phones portables *\/\n  @media (max-width: 650px) {\n    .banner-15jours {\n      flex-direction: column;\n      text-align: center;\n      padding: 20px;\n    }\n    .banner-15jours-icon {\n      margin-right: 0;\n      margin-bottom: 10px;\n      font-size: 32px;\n    }\n    .banner-15jours-text {\n      margin-right: 0;\n      margin-bottom: 15px;\n      font-size: 16px;\n    }\n  }\n<\/style>\n\n<a href=\"https:\/\/alertes-meteo.com\/index.php\/previsions-meteo-france\/previsions-meteo-a-15-jours-france\/\" class=\"banner-15jours\">\n  <span class=\"banner-15jours-icon\">\ud83d\udcc5<\/span>\n  <span class=\"banner-15jours-text\">Pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 15 jours<\/span>\n  <span class=\"banner-15jours-btn\">Consulter<\/span>\n<\/a><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-2\"><h2>Qu&rsquo;est-ce qu&rsquo;un mod\u00e8le num\u00e9rique de pr\u00e9vision ?<\/h2>\n<p>Un mod\u00e8le m\u00e9t\u00e9o est un logiciel complexe qui r\u00e9sout les \u00e9quations de la<strong> m\u00e9canique des fluides<\/strong> et de la thermodynamique. Pour ce faire, il divise l&rsquo;atmosph\u00e8re en un maillage tridimensionnel.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>La <strong>maille<\/strong> (ou r\u00e9solution horizontale) repr\u00e9sente la distance entre deux points de calcul. Plus elle est petite, plus le mod\u00e8le \u00ab\u00a0voit\u00a0\u00bb les d\u00e9tails topographiques (montagnes, c\u00f4tes) et les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes de petite \u00e9chelle.<\/li>\n<li>L&rsquo;<strong>\u00e9ch\u00e9ance<\/strong> est la dur\u00e9e pour laquelle la pr\u00e9vision est calcul\u00e9e.<\/li>\n<li>L&rsquo;<strong>assimilation de donn\u00e9es<\/strong> est l&rsquo;\u00e9tape cruciale o\u00f9 le mod\u00e8le int\u00e8gre les observations r\u00e9elles (satellites, stations au sol, ballons-sondes) pour d\u00e9finir l&rsquo;\u00e9tat initial.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div data-toolbar=\"\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Arome : La pr\u00e9cision chirurgicale pour le court terme<\/h2>\n<p>Le mod\u00e8le Arome (Applications de la Recherche \u00e0 l&rsquo;Op\u00e9rationnel \u00e0 <strong>M\u00e9so-\u00c9chelle<\/strong>) est le fleuron de M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France pour la pr\u00e9vision \u00e0 haute r\u00e9solution. Avec une maille d&rsquo;environ 1.3\u2009km\u00d71.3\u2009km,\u00a0il est capable de simuler des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes dits \u00ab\u00a0convectifs\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>C&rsquo;est l&rsquo;outil indispensable pour anticiper les <strong>orages violents<\/strong>,\u00a0les \u00e9pisodes c\u00e9venols ou les rafales de vent localis\u00e9es. Sa force r\u00e9side dans sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 mod\u00e9liser les nuages et les pr\u00e9cipitations sans passer par des approximations statistiques. En revanche, sa puissance de calcul limite son horizon : il est extr\u00eamement fiable jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 36 ou 48\u2009h, mais sa pertinence chute rapidement au-del\u00e0.<\/p>\n<h2>Arp\u00e8ge : La vision globale et les tendances \u00e0 long terme<\/h2>\n<p>Contrairement \u00e0 Arome, Arp\u00e8ge (Action de Recherche Petite \u00c9chelle Grande \u00c9chelle) couvre l&rsquo;ensemble du globe avec une maille variable, plus serr\u00e9e sur l&rsquo;Europe (environ 7\u2009km).<\/p>\n<p>C&rsquo;est un mod\u00e8le \u00e0 \u00e9chelle synoptique. Il est la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour identifier les grandes circulations atmosph\u00e9riques, comme les trajectoires de d\u00e9pressions atlantiques ou les vagues de chaleur. Pour un professionnel ayant besoin d&rsquo;une tendance \u00e0 3 ou 4 jours, Arp\u00e8ge offre la meilleure stabilit\u00e9. Il sert \u00e9galement de \u00ab\u00a0guide\u00a0\u00bb \u00e0 Arome en lui fournissant les conditions aux limites de son domaine.<\/p>\n<h2>Harmonie : L&rsquo;alternative europ\u00e9enne interm\u00e9diaire<\/h2>\n<p>Le mod\u00e8le Harmonie est issu du consortium international ACCORD (regroupant les anciens groupes HIRLAM et ALADIN). Il est utilis\u00e9 par de nombreux services m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques nationaux en Europe, notamment en Espagne, aux Pays-Bas et dans les pays scandinaves.<\/p>\n<p>Son positionnement est interm\u00e9diaire. Bien que tr\u00e8s proche d&rsquo;Arome dans sa philosophie (haute r\u00e9solution), il propose parfois des sc\u00e9narios alternatifs pr\u00e9cieux pour les pr\u00e9visionnistes. En situation d&rsquo;incertitude, comparer Arome et Harmonie permet d&rsquo;\u00e9valuer la robustesse d&rsquo;une pr\u00e9vision de pluie ou de neige.<\/p>\n<h2>Comparatif technique des mod\u00e8les<\/h2>\n<p>Le tableau ci-dessous synth\u00e9tise les caract\u00e9ristiques majeures de ces outils pour vous aider \u00e0 choisir la source d&rsquo;information la plus adapt\u00e9e \u00e0 vos besoins.<\/p>\n<\/div><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-8902396130105212\"\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\n<!-- bas de page -->\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\n     style=\"display:block\"\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8902396130105212\"\n     data-ad-slot=\"7724440717\"\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><div class=\"fusion-separator fusion-full-width-sep\" style=\"align-self: center;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;width:100%;\"><div class=\"fusion-separator-border sep-double\" style=\"--awb-height:20px;--awb-amount:20px;border-color:var(--awb-color3);border-top-width:1px;border-bottom-width:1px;\"><\/div><\/div><style>\n  .meteo-table-container {\n    overflow-x: auto; \/* Permet le d\u00e9filement sur mobile *\/\n    margin: 25px 0;\n    box-shadow: 0 4px 15px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05);\n    border-radius: 8px;\n    border: 1px solid #eaeaea;\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table {\n    width: 100%;\n    border-collapse: collapse;\n    font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \"Segoe UI\", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\n    background-color: #ffffff;\n    font-size: 15px;\n    text-align: left;\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table th, \n  .meteo-table td {\n    padding: 14px 18px;\n    border-bottom: 1px solid #f0f0f0;\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table thead tr {\n    background-color: #1e73be; \/* Un beau bleu m\u00e9t\u00e9o *\/\n    color: #ffffff;\n    font-weight: 600;\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table thead th {\n    white-space: nowrap; \/* Emp\u00eache le texte des en-t\u00eates de se casser *\/\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table tbody tr:nth-of-type(even) {\n    background-color: #f9fbfd; \/* Gris-bleu tr\u00e8s clair pour les lignes paires *\/\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table tbody tr:hover {\n    background-color: #f1f5f9; \/* Effet de survol *\/\n    transition: background-color 0.2s ease;\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table tbody td:first-child {\n    font-weight: 600;\n    color: #333333;\n    background-color: #ffffff; \/* Garde la premi\u00e8re colonne bien visible *\/\n  }\n<\/style>\n\n<div class=\"meteo-table-container\">\n  <table class=\"meteo-table\">\n    <thead>\n      <tr>\n        <th>Caract\u00e9ristique<\/th>\n        <th>Arome<\/th>\n        <th>Arp\u00e8ge<\/th>\n        <th>Harmonie<\/th>\n      <\/tr>\n    <\/thead>\n    <tbody>\n      <tr>\n        <td>R\u00e9solution (Maille)<\/td>\n        <td>\u2248 1.3 km<\/td>\n        <td>\u2248 7 km (Europe)<\/td>\n        <td>\u2248 2.5 km<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>\u00c9ch\u00e9ance utile<\/td>\n        <td>0 \u00e0 42 heures<\/td>\n        <td>0 \u00e0 114 heures<\/td>\n        <td>0 \u00e0 48 heures<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>Fr\u00e9quence de mise \u00e0 jour<\/td>\n        <td>5 \u00e0 8 fois \/ jour<\/td>\n        <td>4 fois \/ jour<\/td>\n        <td>4 \u00e0 8 fois \/ jour<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>Points forts<\/td>\n        <td>Orages, brouillard, vent local<\/td>\n        <td>Temp\u00eates, fronts, tendances<\/td>\n        <td>Pr\u00e9cipitations, vent moyen<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>Usage Pro type<\/td>\n        <td>S\u00e9curit\u00e9 chantiers, agriculture<\/td>\n        <td>Logistique, planification<\/td>\n        <td>\u00c9nergies renouvelables<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n    <\/tbody>\n  <\/table>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-3\"><h2>Fiabilit\u00e9 selon l&rsquo;\u00e9ch\u00e9ance :<\/h2>\n<p>La <strong>fiabilit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions<\/strong> m\u00e9t\u00e9o n&rsquo;est pas lin\u00e9aire. Elle d\u00e9pend de la stabilit\u00e9 de l&rsquo;atmosph\u00e8re et de l&rsquo;\u00e9ch\u00e9ance choisie.<\/p>\n<\/div><style>\n  .meteo-table-container {\n    overflow-x: auto;\n    margin: 25px 0;\n    box-shadow: 0 4px 15px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05);\n    border-radius: 8px;\n    border: 1px solid #eaeaea;\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table {\n    width: 100%;\n    border-collapse: collapse;\n    font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \"Segoe UI\", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\n    background-color: #ffffff;\n    font-size: 15px;\n    text-align: left;\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table th, \n  .meteo-table td {\n    padding: 14px 18px;\n    border-bottom: 1px solid #f0f0f0;\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table thead tr {\n    background-color: #1e73be; \/* M\u00eame bleu que le premier tableau *\/\n    color: #ffffff;\n    font-weight: 600;\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table thead th {\n    white-space: nowrap;\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table tbody tr:nth-of-type(even) {\n    background-color: #f9fbfd;\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table tbody tr:hover {\n    background-color: #f1f5f9;\n    transition: background-color 0.2s ease;\n  }\n\n  .meteo-table tbody td:first-child {\n    font-weight: 600;\n    color: #333333;\n    white-space: nowrap;\n  }\n  \n  \/* Style des \u00e9tiquettes (badges) de confiance *\/\n  .confiance-badge {\n    display: inline-block;\n    padding: 5px 12px;\n    border-radius: 20px;\n    font-size: 13px;\n    font-weight: bold;\n    color: #ffffff;\n    text-align: center;\n    min-width: 85px;\n  }\n\n  \/* Couleurs des badges *\/\n  .badge-tres-eleve { background-color: #28a745; } \/* Vert fonc\u00e9 *\/\n  .badge-eleve      { background-color: #8cc63f; } \/* Vert clair *\/\n  .badge-modere     { background-color: #f39c12; } \/* Orange *\/\n  .badge-indicatif  { background-color: #3498db; } \/* Bleu *\/\n  .badge-faible     { background-color: #95a5a6; } \/* Gris *\/\n<\/style>\n\n<div class=\"meteo-table-container\">\n  <table class=\"meteo-table\">\n    <thead>\n      <tr>\n        <th>\u00c9ch\u00e9ance<\/th>\n        <th>Mod\u00e8le \u00e0 privil\u00e9gier<\/th>\n        <th>Niveau de confiance<\/th>\n        <th>Action recommand\u00e9e<\/th>\n      <\/tr>\n    <\/thead>\n    <tbody>\n      <tr>\n        <td>0 - 6 h<\/td>\n        <td>Radar + Arome<\/td>\n        <td><span class=\"confiance-badge badge-tres-eleve\">Tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9<\/span><\/td>\n        <td>Gestion imm\u00e9diate des risques<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>6 - 24 h<\/td>\n        <td>Arome \/ Harmonie<\/td>\n        <td><span class=\"confiance-badge badge-eleve\">\u00c9lev\u00e9<\/span><\/td>\n        <td>Confirmation des plannings<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>24 - 48 h<\/td>\n        <td>Arome \/ Arp\u00e8ge<\/td>\n        <td><span class=\"confiance-badge badge-modere\">Mod\u00e9r\u00e9<\/span><\/td>\n        <td>Vigilance sur les seuils critiques<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>3 - 5 jours<\/td>\n        <td>Arp\u00e8ge \/ CEPMMT<\/td>\n        <td><span class=\"confiance-badge badge-indicatif\">Indicatif<\/span><\/td>\n        <td>Pr\u00e9-alerte et organisation<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>Au-del\u00e0<\/td>\n        <td>Mod\u00e8les d'ensemble<\/td>\n        <td><span class=\"confiance-badge badge-faible\">Faible<\/span><\/td>\n        <td>Veille strat\u00e9gique uniquement<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n    <\/tbody>\n  <\/table>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-4\"><h2>Cas concrets :<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Agriculture et Viticulture<\/strong> : Lors d&rsquo;un risque de gel printanier, seul un mod\u00e8le \u00e0 maille fine comme Arome peut anticiper les inversions de temp\u00e9rature dans les vall\u00e9es \u00e9troites. Arp\u00e8ge, trop global, pourrait lisser les temp\u00e9ratures et masquer un danger mortel pour les cultures.<\/li>\n<li><strong>BTP et Levage<\/strong> : Pour l&rsquo;utilisation de grues, les rafales sous orages sont critiques. Arome simule les <strong>courants descendants<\/strong> que les mod\u00e8les globaux ne voient pas, permettant une mise en s\u00e9curit\u00e9 du mat\u00e9riel 22<span aria-hidden=\"true\">2<\/span> heures avant l&rsquo;impact.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u00c9v\u00e9nementiel en ext\u00e9rieur<\/strong> : Une pr\u00e9vision \u00e0 44<span aria-hidden=\"true\">4<\/span> jours bas\u00e9e sur Arp\u00e8ge permet de d\u00e9cider du maintien d&rsquo;une structure l\u00e9g\u00e8re, tandis que le \u00ab\u00a0run\u00a0\u00bb d&rsquo;Arome du matin m\u00eame affinera l&rsquo;heure exacte du passage pluvieux pour ajuster l&rsquo;accueil du public.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":62381,"parent":60797,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"Mod\u00e8les Arome, Arp\u00e8ge, Harmonie : Quelle Fiabilit\u00e9 ?","_seopress_titles_desc":"D\u00e9couvrez comment les mod\u00e8les Arome, Arp\u00e8ge et Harmonie garantissent la fiabilit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9o. 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